Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
